Core inflation vs headline inflation: what each measures, and why they diverge
Core inflation strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. Euro area, August 2026: core 2.4%, headline 3.2%, after 30 months with core on top.
Euro area · Harmonised inflation & ECB policy
An independent tracker of official Eurostat & ECB data: every eurozone country, the ECB rates that bond markets imply, and what it means.
Harmonised annual rate (HICP), September 2026. Sorted highest to lowest. →
| 12-mo trend | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇷🇴Romania | 6.5%September 2026 | ▲ 0.2 | ▼ 2.1 | ▼ |
| 🇱🇹Lithuania | 6.1%September 2026 | ▲ 0.5 | ▲ 2.4 | ▲ |
| 🇧🇬Bulgaria | 5.6%September 2026 | ▲ 0.6 | ▲ 1.6 | ▲ |
| 🇮🇸Iceland | 5.4%September 2026 | ▼ 0.7 | ▲ 1.2 | ▲ |
| 🇨🇾Cyprus | 5.2%September 2026 | 0.0 | ▲ 5.2 | ▲ |
| 🇱🇺Luxembourg | 5.2%September 2026 | ▲ 1.2 | ▲ 2.1 | ▲ |
| 🇬🇷Greece | 5.1%September 2026 | ▲ 1.4 | ▲ 3.3 | ▲ |
| 🇪🇸Spain | 5.0%September 2026 | ▲ 0.4 | ▲ 2.0 | ▲ |
| 🇧🇪Belgium | 4.5%September 2026 | ▲ 0.3 | ▲ 1.8 | ▲ |
| 🇭🇷Croatia | 4.3%September 2026 | ▲ 0.6 | ▼ 0.3 | ▼ |
| 🇮🇹Italy | 4.2%September 2026 | ▲ 1.0 | ▲ 2.5 | ▲ |
| 🇵🇱Poland | 4.0%September 2026 | ▲ 0.5 | ▲ 1.1 | ▲ |
| 🇮🇪Ireland | 3.8%September 2026 | ▲ 0.4 | ▲ 1.1 | ▲ |
| 🇸🇮Slovenia | 3.7%September 2026 | ▲ 0.3 | ▲ 0.9 | ▲ |
| 🇦🇹Austria | 3.6%September 2026 | ▲ 0.7 | ▼ 0.3 | ▼ |
| 🇵🇹Portugal | 3.6%September 2026 | 0.0 | ▲ 1.7 | ▲ |
| 🇫🇷France | 3.4%September 2026 | ▲ 0.8 | ▲ 2.3 | ▲ |
| 🇳🇴Norway | 3.4%September 2026 | ▲ 0.2 | ▼ 0.2 | ▼ |
| 🇩🇪Germany | 3.3%September 2026 | ▲ 0.4 | ▲ 1.0 | ▲ |
| 🇪🇪Estonia | 3.1%September 2026 | ▲ 1.8 | ▼ 2.2 | ▼ |
| 🇱🇻Latvia | 3.0%September 2026 | 0.0 | ▼ 1.2 | ▼ |
| 🇳🇱Netherlands | 3.0%September 2026 | ▲ 0.2 | 0.0 | ▲ |
| 🇸🇰Slovakia | 3.0%September 2026 | ▼ 0.1 | ▼ 1.6 | ▼ |
| 🇫🇮Finland | 2.7%September 2026 | ▲ 0.3 | ▲ 0.5 | ▲ |
| 🇲🇹Malta | 2.4%September 2026 | ▲ 0.4 | 0.0 | ▲ |
| 🇨🇿Czechia | 2.2%September 2026 | ▲ 0.7 | ▲ 0.2 | ▲ |
| 🇩🇰Denmark | 2.1%September 2026 | ▲ 0.1 | ▼ 0.1 | ▼ |
| 🇭🇺Hungary | 2.1%September 2026 | ▲ 0.3 | ▼ 2.2 | ▼ |
| 🇨🇭Switzerland | 1.2%September 2026 | ▲ 0.3 | ▲ 1.2 | ▲ |
| 🇸🇪Sweden | 1.0%September 2026 | ▲ 0.7 | ▼ 2.2 | ▼ |
Euro-area AAA government bond yields imply short-term rates of about 3.10% in a year, above today's 2.50% deposit facility rate.
| Horizon | Forward rate | Against the deposit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Today: deposit facility rate | 2.50% | – |
| In 3 months | 2.73% | +0.23 pp |
| In 6 months | 2.92% | +0.42 pp |
| In 9 months | 3.04% | +0.54 pp |
| In 1 year | 3.10% | +0.60 pp |
| In 18 months | 3.15% | +0.65 pp |
| In 2 years | 3.16% | +0.66 pp |
These are forward rates read off the euro-area AAA government bond yield curve. They include a term premium, so they are bond-market prices, not the ECB's guidance and not a forecast by euroflation.
What analysts surveyed by the ECB expect ↗ · ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, results page (in English)
Source: ECB Data Portal, yield curve (YC), AAA government bonds, instantaneous forward rates · 22 October 2026. Differences from the deposit rate: euroflation calculation.
How fast food prices are changing — the food component of the HICP.
How fast actual rents are changing — a consumer-price rate, not a rent in euros.
Transaction prices of homes, quarterly, from Eurostat's House Price Index.
Where groceries cost more: the price level of food and non-alcoholic beverages, EU average = 100.
Core inflation strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. Euro area, August 2026: core 2.4%, headline 3.2%, after 30 months with core on top.